Joel Miller's Flawed Legislation for Fire District Budget Empowerment

To contact us Click HERE
New York State Assemblyman Joel Miller has introduced legislation to provide for public vote on fire district budgets in the November general election. Under current New York State law, fire district budgets are controlled by the district's board of fire commissioners. Miller's legislation A9762A, called the Fire District Budget Empowerment Act, shifts the approval of fire district budgets from the fire commissioners to the general public. Miller announced his popular vote initiative in an April 22, 2012, Valley Views article in the Poughkeepsie Journal.

Popular Vote on Budget Is Inconsistent With Other Local Governments

As I see it, popular vote on fire district budgets is a risky departure from most governance in this country. There is no public vote on the federal budget, there is no public vote on the New York State budget, there is no public vote on the Dutchess County budget, or on city or village budgets. Instead, the general public votes for representatives (government officials such as legislators, councilmen, etc.) who in turn decide on agency budgets. This is the principle of representative democracy, one of the foundations of this country. In the case of fire districts, the people vote for fire commissioners, who in turn control the budget.

Direct Democracy Is Seldom Used But Often Problematic

Miller's initiative is an example of direct democracy, in which policy decisions are made by popular vote, bypassing or overriding government officials. Direct democracy for economic decisions is used only sparingly in the United States. In California, many major economic decisions beginning with the infamous Proposition 13 have been made by popular vote, with disastrous results.

The founding fathers were very much opposed to direct democracy (also called “pure democracy”), according to Wikipedia. John Witherspoon, a signer of the Declaration of Independence, said, “Pure democracy cannot subsist long nor be carried far into the departments of state – it is very subject to caprice and the madness of popular rage.” The American colonists favored representative democracy — not direct democracy. That's why they said “No taxation without representation.” They didn't say “No taxation without popular vote.”

Why should fire districts be any different from other local governments?

Fire districts are just one more kind of local government taxing authority in New York State, along with Towns, cities, villages, and counties. I know of no reason why fire districts should be governed differently than any of these other taxing authorities. In my view, fire districts should continue to use the same budget approval process as most other local taxing authorities.

Incorrect and Misleading Statements in Valley View Article

Miller's Valley View article contains misleading statements, and at least one statement that is just plain wrong. In the context of the Fairview Fire District's high fire tax rate, Miller writes:

Fairview alone had fire district tax rates nearly 10 times higher than 27 other towns in Dutchess County in 2010.

This statement is absurd, since there are only 20 towns in Dutchess County. Well, perhaps Miller meant “fire districts” instead of “towns”, since there are about 31 fire districts in Dutchess County. I checked with Miller's office, and was assured that yes, that's what he meant. Well, wrong again! My tax rate analysis from 2009 shows (page 14) that Fairview's tax rate was 10 times higher than 13 other fire districts — not 27 other fire districts. Miller's research staffer has conceded that the Valley Views statement — even after changing “towns” to fire districts” — is incorrect.

Miller misleadingly writes, “This legislation will permit public participation in fire district budgets ...,” as if public participation in the fire district budget process doesn't already exist. But New York State law already requires a fire district to publicize its tentative budget and to hold a public hearing on the budget, during which public input is received. In this way again, state law provides for public participation in the fire district budget process just as it does in most other kinds of local government, including counties, cities, villages, and schools.

This Is My Opinion

Most of my previous posts have been nonpartisan, focusing on objective facts. This post (except for the last section) is clearly my own opinion. Therefore, it's marked with an “Opinion” label. As always, I welcome your reasoned comments.

Joel Miller Just Can't Get Fairview Facts Straight

To contact us Click HERE
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Try as he might, New York State Assemblyman Joel Miller just can't get his facts right regarding the Fairview Fire District. On his first try, in a Poughkeepsie Journal Valley Views article on April 22, 2012, he wrote

Fairview alone had fire district tax rates nearly 10 times higher than 27 other towns in Dutchess County in 2010.

I pointed out in Joel Miller's Flawed Legislation for Fire District Budget Empowerment that there are only 20 towns in Dutchess County, and that even if he meant “fire districts” instead of “towns” (which would have made more sense), his statement is still not even close to correct.

Flawed Staff Work

In preparation for that blog post, I spoke with the staffer for Miller who had generated this misstatement. This staffer had already reviewed some of my own reports, including The Big Three Fire Districts of Dutchess County. It became clear to me that this staffer was not well prepared to interpret quantitative information, and the staffer readily conceded as much. My instinct was that if Miller were to release a corrected statement, it might also be wrong. Because I genuinely wanted facts to be correctly stated, I suggested a corrected statement, and I offered to preview any proposed new statement about Fairview. I never heard from Miller or any of his staffers about this matter.

My instinct turned out to be correct. On April 26, Miller sent a press release to each Fairview Fire Commissioner. This press release was essentially a rewording of his Valley Views article, except that the incorrect statement about Fairview was replaced by a new incorrect statement about Fairview:

Fairview alone had fire district tax rates nearly eight times higher than 30 other fire districts in Dutchess County in 2010.

The irony is that the above statement appears to be a mis-quote of a statement in my own report, which reads

Fairview’s tax rate is nearly eight times the average of the non-big-three districts.

Apparently the staffer thought the word “average” in my statement didn't really mean anything important, and could just be omitted! But as most European high school students know, an average of a bunch of numbers must be smaller than some of the numbers being averaged. In fact, for ordinary data like tax rates, roughly half the numbers can be expected to be greater than the average. Maybe even much greater.

And so it is in this case. Half the non-big-three fire districts had tax rates greater than the average of the non-big-three, and half had tax rates less than the average. So Fairview's tax rate was eight times higher than only 14 other fire districts — not 30 other fire districts.

Incidentally, “30 other fire districts” in Miller's statement is wrong too. There were only 30 fire districts in the whole analysis, and the big three fire districts were excluded from this average, so there could only be 27 non-big-three districts. The (weighted) average of these 27 was greater than 14 of these districts, and smaller than 13 of these districts, as one would expect. For five of these districts, Fairview was only about four times higher — not 8 times higher as Miller claimed.

Miller Has Been Ambivalent About Accuracy

This post isn't about flawed staff work. The principal is responsible for the work of his staff. If Miller had any doubt whether his staff could handle the fire tax rate issue, the doubt was resolved the first time the mistake was made. At that point, Miller knew — or should have known — that his staff didn't know what they were doing on this issue, and so were unlikely to make a proper correction on their own. Miller could have arranged for an independent review of his proposed “correction” before it was released. (I would have been glad to accommodate.)

But this post isn't just about fire taxes either. Joel Miller represents 6 of Dutchess County's 20 towns in the New York State Assembly. Yet he allowed himself to write “27 other towns in Dutchess County,” a gaffe that he or any member of his staff could easily have corrected without knowing anything about fire tax rates.

Taken together, these mistakes show Miller to have been ambivalent about the accuracy of his factual statements. Such lapses affect his credibility.

Why Has Fairview's Exempt Percent Increased?

To contact us Click HERE
The Fairview Fire District has the highest fire tax rate in Dutchess County, and possibly the highest fire tax rate in New York State. One of the reasons for Fairview's high tax rate is that roughly half of Fairview's market value is exempt from paying fire taxes, but the exempt half still accounts for half the fire and emergency service calls to the Fairview Fire District. Fairview's taxable property owners pay not only their own share of fire tax, but also pay for service to the exempt properties. Fairview residents and property owners have had a longstanding interest in knowing exactly what percent of Fairview is exempt, and how Fairview's exempt percent may be changing over time. Unfortunately, there has been a history of misstatement of Fairview's exempt percent, which I have attempted to correct. See Fairview Fire District's Exempt Percent Is Misstated — Again.

Fairview's Exempt Percent

The following table shows a 5-year history of Fairview's exempt percent, according to my calculations:

Year of Tax Bill	Exempt Percent
2008	47.9*
2009	47.5
2010	47.9
2011	50.8
2012	51.7

* Listed exempt percent for 2008 is after correcting for a blunder by the Town of Poughkeepsie Assessor's Office.

Note that the 2008 “land” tax bill (including the fire, town, county, and other taxes) corresponds to the 2007 assessment roll, and so forth. This table shows that for the years 2008 — 2010, Fairview's exempt percent has been 47.7 plus or minus 0.2 percent. However, beginning in 2011, Fairview's exempt percent has noticeably increased, standing at 51.7 percent for 2012 tax bills. What accounts for this 4 percent increase in Fairview's exempt percent over two years? This post will examine this question.

Exempt Value has Increased While Taxable Value Decreased

Property values have been falling every year in Dutchess County since the 2008 economic meltdown. Fairview's taxable market value fell 11.8 percent between the 2010 and 2012 tax bills. If Fairview's exempt market value had also fallen 11.8 percent during this period, Fairview's exempt percent would have stayed the same as 2010, at 47.9 percent. But Fairview's exempt market value did not fall 11.8 percent — it actually increased by 2.5 percent! In terms of dollars, Fairview's exempt market value for the 2012 tax bill was about $74 million greater than it would have been if Fairview's exempt percent had remained constant. This $74 million caused Fairview's exempt percent to increase from 47.9 to 51.7 in two years. The $74 million arises from two sources:

1. Four exempt parcels saw dramatic increases in assessed value, for a total of about $41 million. 
2. Fairview's other exempt parcels fell in value by only about 4 percent on average, rather than by the 11.8 percent decrease for taxable parcels. These exempt parcels are assessed at approximately $33 million more than they would have been if they'd depreciated in proportion to taxable parcels.

Why did four exempt parcels dramatically increase in assessed value?

One might assume that the dramatic increases in four parcels simply reflect major construction projects on these parcels. Surprisingly, this assumption is true only for one of the four parcels. Marist College's parcel at 30 Fulton Street (Parcel number 134689-6162-05-035776-0000) increased in value from $240,000 in 2010 to $17,760,000 in 2012 because student residence halls were constructed on that property between those years.

The other three parcels, detailed in the following table, are part of the water and sewer systems for the City and Town of Poughkeepsie:

Parcel number 134689-6062-02 -xxxxxx-0000	827844	835560	818562
Address	3431 North Rd	Kittredge Pl	173 Kittredge Pl
Land use class	822 (water supply)	853 (Sewage)	853 (Sewage)
Owner	City of Poughkeepsie and Town	City of Poughkeepsie	Town of Poughkeepsie
2008 tax bill	$4,274,000	$111,400*	$159,300
2009 tax bill	$4,274,000	$235,000*	$316,000
2010 tax bill	$4,274,000	Not in roll	$316,000
2011 tax bill	Not in roll	Not in roll	$300,500
2012 tax bill	$12,000,000	$10,000,000	$5,250,000

The above three parcels have had no significant construction or other actual increase in market value in many years. These parcels have just been improperly assessed for at least 5 years:

• The 835569 property was erroneously listed as taxable rather than exempt for the 2008 and 2009 tax bills, as indicated by * after its assessed value.
• This same property was erroneously listed with land use class 340 (Vacant land located in industrial areas) for these same years.
• Two of the three parcels were erroneously omitted from the assessment roll corresponding to the 2011 tax bill. One was erroneously omitted from the assessment roll for the 2010 tax bill.
• None of the assessed values for any of these three parcels for any of the 5 years is remotely correct. Even for the 2012 tax bill, the total assessed value is $27,250,000 — only a fraction of the true value of these three properties.

According to my discussion with Town of Poughkeepsie Assessor Kathleen Taber, the 2012 values are only the beginning of an attempt to correct the assessments for these parcels. A realistic correction will not be in place until the 2013 land tax bill, which is based on assessments being finalized this month. The current Parcel Access database, applicable to 2013, shows a tentative total assessed value for these parcels of $125,000,000 — nearly $100 million more than this year's assessment.

Why did exempt parcels decrease in value less than taxable parcels?

While taxable parcels fell in value 11.8 percent in two years, most exempt parcels fell only about 4 percent. As I understand Taber's explanation for this, many exempt properties are difficult to assess because they don't generally appear on the open market. People don't generally buy or sell municipal sewage treatment plants, college academic buildings, or hospital atriums. Changes in the market value of these properties are difficult to gauge because there really isn't a market for these properties. Taber also mentioned that “commercial” properties tend to decrease in value more slowly than residential properties.

It may also be that less attention is given to properly assessing exempt properties simply because the stakes are lower. For taxable parcels, property owners pay real money proportional to the assessment. Taxpayers want assurance that they are paying no more than necessary, while municipal governments receiving taxes want assurance that they are collecting the full amount of money from every taxable parcel. Therefore, tax assessors are under considerable pressure to make assessments of taxable properties that are neither too high nor too low. For exempt properties, these incentives are not present. Inaccurate — apparently even wildly inaccurate — assessments aren't so much noticed.

Summary

There isn't one simple answer as to why Fairview's exempt percent has increased in the last two years. According to my analysis, there are three contributors, in order of decreasing importance:

1. Although Fairview's taxable market value fell by 11.8 percent, Fairview's exempt market value fell by only about 4 percent. The difference means that Fairview's exempt properties were valued $33 million higher than they would have been if they had tracked the taxable decline.
2. Three municipal water and sewer parcels were grossly under-assessed. The assessor made a correction of $23 million.
3. Marist College built student residences, increasing the value of one parcel by $18 million.

These three factors contribute 45%, 31%, and 24%, respectively, to Fairview's increase in exempt percent. Thus, all three factors contribute significantly to Fairview's increase.

Pattern of Under-Assessment of Exempt Properties

The careful reader will have noticed two reasons why Fairview's exempt percent may not be as meaningful as one would like. The first is that gross under-assessment of high-value exempt properties is a bigger issue than previously assumed. Two years ago, I found that the St. Frances Hospital complex had been under-assessed by over $100 million. At the time, I assumed this blunder was a one-time event that would be unlikely to be repeated. Now there's a second instance:  Municipal water and sewer parcels have been under-assessed by over $100 million. Most of this under-assessment will not be corrected until Fairview's 2013 tax bill. This pattern will continue: The recent construction of dormitories at Dutchess Community College — worth tens of millions of dollars — will not be reflected in Fairview's 2013 exempt percent. Taber told me she didn't have time to add the DCC dorms to the current assessment roll, the basis for Fairview's 2013 tax. The omission of such major contributors to exempt value results in underestimation of the true exempt percent.

Unequal Depreciation

The second reason why Fairview's exempt percent may not be so meaningful is that market forces apparently do not affect taxable and exempt properties equally. Nearly half (45 percent) of the increase in Fairview's exempt percent in the last two years is due to the fact that the average exempt property lost only one third as much value as the average taxable property did. At least, that's what the assessment rolls say. Do the assessment rolls accurately reflect exempt property values? There is some reason to wonder. If exempt properties have been overvalued in the last few years, Fairview's corresponding exempt percent is artificially high.

Pace Study's Analysis of Fairview Fire Tax Rate is Flawed

To contact us Click HERE
Pace University's Michaelian Institute for Public Policy and Management released its 189 page Fairview Fire District Consolidation and Efficiency Study final report on June 12. This work, known locally as the Pace Study, examines the feasibility of Fairview consolidating with one or more neighboring fire districts. Pace Study Principal Investigator Michael Genito will present this work at a public meeting this evening, according to the Pace Study website.

In spite of the central importance of tax rates to fiscal analysis, the final report devotes only three sentences and one chart to Fairview's past and future tax rates. Unfortunately, these three sentences, which pertain to average yearly tax rate increase and projection to 2017, are incorrect. Also, the chart contains some incorrect data and an incorrect linear approximation. When I presented my analysis to Genito, he readily concurred that all these statements and the chart are flawed.

Flawed Final Report Passage

The flawed information, on page 175 of the final report PDF (labeled page 167), is as follows:

The Fairview Fire District tax rate has increased on average 4.4% each year from 2008 through 2012. A linear regression of the past five years going forward indicates that by 2017 the tax rate would approximate $6.50 per $1,000 taxable assessed valuation. As such, and all things being equal, the median home would expect to see their fire service property tax to rise from $1,321 per year to $1,502 in 2017.

The above chart, copied from the final report, is confusingly labeled “Tax Rate per $1,000 Assessed Value”, but it is clear from context that this data is really tax rate per thousand dollars of market value, otherwise known as true value tax rate. This is the appropriate kind of tax rate for this analysis.

2008 Fairview Fire Tax Rate Is Incorrect

The key flaw is that the 2008 tax rate in the above chart is incorrect. Fairview's effective 2008 tax rate is $5.16, whereas the above chart shows it to be approximately $4.83. The final report's error in Fairview's 2008 tax rate leads to all the other errors in this passage, as will be explained below.

Genito's Blunder

How did Genito come to make this error? He apparently took an unwarranted shortcut. Instead of dividing Fairview's tax levy by Fairview's market value (the correct method, and the definition of true value tax rate), he took the Poughkeepsie portion of Fairview's tax levy and divided it by the Poughkeepsie portion of Fairview's market value. Under ordinary circumstances, such as between 2009 and 2012, Genito's method would give the same — or nearly the same — result as the correct method. Unfortunately, Fairview's circumstances in 2008 were far from ordinary.

Inequitable Apportionment

Long-time followers of my work know that for every year from 2001 to 2008, apportionment of Fairview's fire tax levy between Poughkeepsie and Hyde Park has been inequitable, resulting in different true value tax rates for the Poughkeepsie and Hyde  Park segments, in violation of New York State Real Property Tax Law. In 2008, the Poughkeepsie segment had a true value tax rate of $4.83 — the number on Genito's chart — but the Hyde Park segment had a whopping true value tax rate of $5.96. All these facts were documented in detail four years ago here, and especially here.

Corrected Chart

In order to fairly graph tax rates, the Y-axis should ordinarily begin at zero dollars. Genito's chart begins the Y-axis at $2, presumably to better visualize small changes in tax rate. The following chart, using the corrected 2008 value, takes this decision further, beginning the Y-axis at $5. This way, small changes in tax rate can be seen even better.


Although the final report's chart includes a straight line approximation to the data and an extrapolation to 2017, such analyses are not appropriate to the corrected data. That's because the corrected data simply does not fit a straight line well enough to justify such an approximation. The corrected data cannot meaningfully be used to linearly extrapolate Fairview fire tax rate out even one year — let alone five years. Once again, Genito concurs with this judgement, which is supported by generally accepted criteria for goodness of fit to a straight line. What this means is that there is simply no basis to support the second and third sentences in the final report's passage, which project 2017 values.

Fairview's Tax Rate Has Been Trending Down Until 2012

We know that taxes are always going up, right? Well, not in Fairview. Examination of the corrected chart between 2008 and 2011 shows that Fairview's yearly tax rate change has been downward twice and upward only once. Even the single upward change from 2010 to 2011 leaves Fairview's tax rate lower than it was in 2008. A standard linear approximation to Fairview's 2008—2011 tax rate would show a decreasing tax rate, not an increasing one.

Fairview's Tax Rate Has Been Approximately Constant — Until 2012

Fairview's downward trend in the 2008—2011 time period is actually quite small. It would probably make more sense to approximate Fairview's tax rate during this time period as a constant value. With such an approximation, Fairview's 2008—2011 tax rate is $5.10 plus or minus 1.2 percent for every year in this interval. The 2011 tax rate is equal to this constant value to within 0.2 percent.

Fairview's 2012 Tax Rate Breaks the Pattern

This pattern of constant tax rate is broken in 2012, where the tax rate soars 12 percent from its historical value of $5.10. It is this break from the pattern that makes it infeasible to predict future tax rates. Another way to look at it is that there is no way one could have predicted Fairview's 2012 tax rate by extrapolation from the previous 4 years.

Average Yearly Tax Rate Increase Is Misleading

What about the first sentence in the final report's passage (average tax rate increase of 4.4 percent per year)? This statistic depends crucially on the 2008 value. With the corrected value, the average tax rate increase is only 2.6 percent per year, not 4.4 percent. Thus the passage's first sentence is incorrect.

Of course, even the corrected sentence is of dubious value. Averages can be deceiving. Why mention a formally correct “average increase” when the tax rate actually decreases as often as it increases. A man drowned in a river whose “average” depth was 6 inches. But he was in the 10-foot part. For the average yearly tax rate increase, essentially all of the tax rate increase during the 5-year period occurred in the last year.

Flawed Passage Is Best Removed

According to Genito, the report's inclusion of the above-quoted passage stemmed from a request by Fairview officials (the “Study Committee”) for a projection based on a 5-year history. Now that Genito has accepted my correction, he and I seem to agree that no future projection can be justified by the data. As I see it, the average tax rate increase is misleading as well, and is best omitted. The only part of the flawed passage that could be of positive value is the corrected chart. This chart is certainly useful for understanding Fairview's fiscal situation, but such an understanding appears to be outside the scope of this report.

Dutchess County Gov't 2013 Tax Rate Likely To Be Highest in Millennium

To contact us Click HERE
Newly elected County Executive Marcus Molinaro is many weeks away from announcing a proposed 2013 budget. After that, the county legislature must deliberate on adjustments before approving a final budget in December. Nevertheless, I can already predict with some confidence that the final 2013 county budget will result in the highest tax rate in this millennium, and the highest tax levy in the history of Dutchess County. In other words, properties will be taxed more steeply by Dutchess County Government than ever before in this millennium. These predictions are based on two tax trends:

1. Dutchess County's taxable market value continues to fall — for the fifth year in a row.
2. Dutchess County Government's tax levy has never significantly fallen, year-to-year.

Taxable Market Value

Dutchess County's taxable market value and tax levy for each year from 2001 through 2012 are derived from the tax rate pamphlets published by the Dutchess County Real Property Tax Service Agency (RPTSA).


For the 2013 tax bill, only an initial estimate of Dutchess County's taxable market value is available (shown in yellow), based on the July 1, 2012, assessment rolls. This value is shown as $30.7 billion on page 23 of a fiscal presentation by the Dutchess County Budget Office. The downward trend in property values since the beginning of the economic meltdown in 2008 is evident in the following chart:


The 2013 taxable market value is shown in yellow to indicate that it is only a preliminary value. The final value, which will not be available until late January 2013, is most likely to be somewhat lower than this value for a variety of reasons explained in detail here.

Note that taxable market value is a net value, including both the value of new construction and improvements, and the current value of existing construction. Dutchess County's taxable market value surged in the first part of the last decade. In 2008 it was 2.5 times larger than in 2001. But from 2008 to 2013 it fell 20 percent. Once again, this 20 percent includes the effects of both the value of new construction and the current value of existing construction. Since there has been some new construction, the value of existing construction must have dropped more than 20 percent since 2008. 

Year to year increases in the taxable market value are shown  below:


When I performed this analysis last year, it appeared as if the property value free-fall was nearly over, since the 2012 taxable market value decrease was the smallest since the meltdown. But the 2013 estimate clearly contradicts that conclusion. Although the 2013 decrease is only an initial estimate, the final decrease will most likely be somewhat greater. Note that all these market values lag tax bills by a year and a half. For example, for tax bills to be paid in February 2013, the corresponding market values are as of July 1, 2011.

Tax Levy

To reason about the 2013 tax levy, let's consider Dutchess County's tax levy history:




The above charts show that Dutchess County's tax levy has increased by a significant amount almost every year. Only in 2002 and 2011 has the tax levy been essentially unchanged from the previous year. Accordingly, I've made the most conservative assumption, that Dutchess County's 2013 tax levy increase will be zero. Based on history, it's unlikely that Dutchess County's 2013 tax levy will be lower than the 2012 levy. The yellow bar indicates that this data point is speculative.

Tax Rate

The 2013 true value tax rate, which is calculated by dividing the assumed 2013 tax levy by the 2013 taxable market value, is $3.38 per thousand dollars of market value: 

The above chart shows that this projected 2013 tax rate for Dutchess County (in yellow) is higher than in any previous year. This projection is almost certainly a low estimate. That's because the final 2013 taxable market value and the 2013 tax levy are both likely to move in a direction to increase this tax rate even further. The tax rate increase chart gives a third reason to conclude that the $3.38 estimate is conservative:

If Dutchess County's 2013 tax rate turns out to be “only” $3.38 — the highest in this millennium — it will still represent the lowest tax rate increase since the meltdown.

Will My Predictions Stand the Test of Time?

What would it take for my tax rate prediction of at least $3.38 or my prediction of the largest tax levy in Dutchess County's history to be wrong? Well, perhaps Molinaro will propose an especially frugal budget with a lower tax levy than last year's. But this won't be easy to do. Former County Executive William Steinhaus was known for shrinking county government and implementing other austerity measures in the years since the meltdown. It's unlikely there's a lot of fat to cut. Meanwhile, the costs of everything are continuing to increase. The effects of the 2008 economic meltdown are still being felt all over, despite allegations of a “recovery”.

How Will We Know Whether My Predictions Are Correct?

The first and most significant indication of whether my predictions are correct will occur next month, when Molinero announces his proposed budget. The second and probably less significant indication will be when the County Legislature approves the budget, possibly with modifications, in December. But the final word will not be out until January, when the 2013 tax rate pamphlet is released by the RPTSA, possibly with slight adjustments as described here. It is these tax rates that are used to generate property tax bills. Ultimately, it is the property tax bills that define how steeply taxpayers are being taxed.

I Hope I'm Wrong

It would be great if my predictions turn out to be wrong. Property taxpayers have been suffering more every year since the meltdown, and of course not just from Dutchess County Government taxes. Only time will tell whether my prediction of Dutchess County's 2013 tax rate of $3.38 turns out to be low-ball.

UPDATE 10/6/2012 — Budget May Exceed 2% Tax Cap

Just a day after publication of this post, it already looks like my caution that my predictions might be wrong may be unwarranted. A front page story in yesterday's Poughkeepsie Journal describes Molinaro's intent to replenish  the County's rainy-day fund. The story quotes Dutchess County Legislative Chairman Robert Rolison as saying that Molinaro's plan would probably require exceeding the State's 2 percent tax cap. Nevertheless, Rolison signaled his intent to support such an increase. As I see it, the stage is already being set to increase the County's 2013 tax levy by at least 2 percent over 2012. Even at just 2 percent, the 2013 tax rate would be $3.45, a 6.1 percent increase over 2012. Such a result would easily confirm my predictions.

Joel Miller Just Can't Get Fairview Facts Straight

To contact us Click HERE
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynihan
Try as he might, New York State Assemblyman Joel Miller just can't get his facts right regarding the Fairview Fire District. On his first try, in a Poughkeepsie Journal Valley Views article on April 22, 2012, he wrote

Fairview alone had fire district tax rates nearly 10 times higher than 27 other towns in Dutchess County in 2010.

I pointed out in Joel Miller's Flawed Legislation for Fire District Budget Empowerment that there are only 20 towns in Dutchess County, and that even if he meant “fire districts” instead of “towns” (which would have made more sense), his statement is still not even close to correct.

Flawed Staff Work

In preparation for that blog post, I spoke with the staffer for Miller who had generated this misstatement. This staffer had already reviewed some of my own reports, including The Big Three Fire Districts of Dutchess County. It became clear to me that this staffer was not well prepared to interpret quantitative information, and the staffer readily conceded as much. My instinct was that if Miller were to release a corrected statement, it might also be wrong. Because I genuinely wanted facts to be correctly stated, I suggested a corrected statement, and I offered to preview any proposed new statement about Fairview. I never heard from Miller or any of his staffers about this matter.

My instinct turned out to be correct. On April 26, Miller sent a press release to each Fairview Fire Commissioner. This press release was essentially a rewording of his Valley Views article, except that the incorrect statement about Fairview was replaced by a new incorrect statement about Fairview:

Fairview alone had fire district tax rates nearly eight times higher than 30 other fire districts in Dutchess County in 2010.

The irony is that the above statement appears to be a mis-quote of a statement in my own report, which reads

Fairview’s tax rate is nearly eight times the average of the non-big-three districts.

Apparently the staffer thought the word “average” in my statement didn't really mean anything important, and could just be omitted! But as most European high school students know, an average of a bunch of numbers must be smaller than some of the numbers being averaged. In fact, for ordinary data like tax rates, roughly half the numbers can be expected to be greater than the average. Maybe even much greater.

And so it is in this case. Half the non-big-three fire districts had tax rates greater than the average of the non-big-three, and half had tax rates less than the average. So Fairview's tax rate was eight times higher than only 14 other fire districts — not 30 other fire districts.

Incidentally, “30 other fire districts” in Miller's statement is wrong too. There were only 30 fire districts in the whole analysis, and the big three fire districts were excluded from this average, so there could only be 27 non-big-three districts. The (weighted) average of these 27 was greater than 14 of these districts, and smaller than 13 of these districts, as one would expect. For five of these districts, Fairview was only about four times higher — not 8 times higher as Miller claimed.

Miller Has Been Ambivalent About Accuracy

This post isn't about flawed staff work. The principal is responsible for the work of his staff. If Miller had any doubt whether his staff could handle the fire tax rate issue, the doubt was resolved the first time the mistake was made. At that point, Miller knew — or should have known — that his staff didn't know what they were doing on this issue, and so were unlikely to make a proper correction on their own. Miller could have arranged for an independent review of his proposed “correction” before it was released. (I would have been glad to accommodate.)

But this post isn't just about fire taxes either. Joel Miller represents 6 of Dutchess County's 20 towns in the New York State Assembly. Yet he allowed himself to write “27 other towns in Dutchess County,” a gaffe that he or any member of his staff could easily have corrected without knowing anything about fire tax rates.

Taken together, these mistakes show Miller to have been ambivalent about the accuracy of his factual statements. Such lapses affect his credibility.

Why Has Fairview's Exempt Percent Increased?

To contact us Click HERE
The Fairview Fire District has the highest fire tax rate in Dutchess County, and possibly the highest fire tax rate in New York State. One of the reasons for Fairview's high tax rate is that roughly half of Fairview's market value is exempt from paying fire taxes, but the exempt half still accounts for half the fire and emergency service calls to the Fairview Fire District. Fairview's taxable property owners pay not only their own share of fire tax, but also pay for service to the exempt properties. Fairview residents and property owners have had a longstanding interest in knowing exactly what percent of Fairview is exempt, and how Fairview's exempt percent may be changing over time. Unfortunately, there has been a history of misstatement of Fairview's exempt percent, which I have attempted to correct. See Fairview Fire District's Exempt Percent Is Misstated — Again.

Fairview's Exempt Percent

The following table shows a 5-year history of Fairview's exempt percent, according to my calculations:

Year of Tax Bill	Exempt Percent
2008	47.9*
2009	47.5
2010	47.9
2011	50.8
2012	51.7

* Listed exempt percent for 2008 is after correcting for a blunder by the Town of Poughkeepsie Assessor's Office.

Note that the 2008 “land” tax bill (including the fire, town, county, and other taxes) corresponds to the 2007 assessment roll, and so forth. This table shows that for the years 2008 — 2010, Fairview's exempt percent has been 47.7 plus or minus 0.2 percent. However, beginning in 2011, Fairview's exempt percent has noticeably increased, standing at 51.7 percent for 2012 tax bills. What accounts for this 4 percent increase in Fairview's exempt percent over two years? This post will examine this question.

Exempt Value has Increased While Taxable Value Decreased

Property values have been falling every year in Dutchess County since the 2008 economic meltdown. Fairview's taxable market value fell 11.8 percent between the 2010 and 2012 tax bills. If Fairview's exempt market value had also fallen 11.8 percent during this period, Fairview's exempt percent would have stayed the same as 2010, at 47.9 percent. But Fairview's exempt market value did not fall 11.8 percent — it actually increased by 2.5 percent! In terms of dollars, Fairview's exempt market value for the 2012 tax bill was about $74 million greater than it would have been if Fairview's exempt percent had remained constant. This $74 million caused Fairview's exempt percent to increase from 47.9 to 51.7 in two years. The $74 million arises from two sources:

1. Four exempt parcels saw dramatic increases in assessed value, for a total of about $41 million. 
2. Fairview's other exempt parcels fell in value by only about 4 percent on average, rather than by the 11.8 percent decrease for taxable parcels. These exempt parcels are assessed at approximately $33 million more than they would have been if they'd depreciated in proportion to taxable parcels.

Why did four exempt parcels dramatically increase in assessed value?

One might assume that the dramatic increases in four parcels simply reflect major construction projects on these parcels. Surprisingly, this assumption is true only for one of the four parcels. Marist College's parcel at 30 Fulton Street (Parcel number 134689-6162-05-035776-0000) increased in value from $240,000 in 2010 to $17,760,000 in 2012 because student residence halls were constructed on that property between those years.

The other three parcels, detailed in the following table, are part of the water and sewer systems for the City and Town of Poughkeepsie:

Parcel number 134689-6062-02 -xxxxxx-0000	827844	835560	818562
Address	3431 North Rd	Kittredge Pl	173 Kittredge Pl
Land use class	822 (water supply)	853 (Sewage)	853 (Sewage)
Owner	City of Poughkeepsie and Town	City of Poughkeepsie	Town of Poughkeepsie
2008 tax bill	$4,274,000	$111,400*	$159,300
2009 tax bill	$4,274,000	$235,000*	$316,000
2010 tax bill	$4,274,000	Not in roll	$316,000
2011 tax bill	Not in roll	Not in roll	$300,500
2012 tax bill	$12,000,000	$10,000,000	$5,250,000

The above three parcels have had no significant construction or other actual increase in market value in many years. These parcels have just been improperly assessed for at least 5 years:

• The 835569 property was erroneously listed as taxable rather than exempt for the 2008 and 2009 tax bills, as indicated by * after its assessed value.
• This same property was erroneously listed with land use class 340 (Vacant land located in industrial areas) for these same years.
• Two of the three parcels were erroneously omitted from the assessment roll corresponding to the 2011 tax bill. One was erroneously omitted from the assessment roll for the 2010 tax bill.
• None of the assessed values for any of these three parcels for any of the 5 years is remotely correct. Even for the 2012 tax bill, the total assessed value is $27,250,000 — only a fraction of the true value of these three properties.

According to my discussion with Town of Poughkeepsie Assessor Kathleen Taber, the 2012 values are only the beginning of an attempt to correct the assessments for these parcels. A realistic correction will not be in place until the 2013 land tax bill, which is based on assessments being finalized this month. The current Parcel Access database, applicable to 2013, shows a tentative total assessed value for these parcels of $125,000,000 — nearly $100 million more than this year's assessment.

Why did exempt parcels decrease in value less than taxable parcels?

While taxable parcels fell in value 11.8 percent in two years, most exempt parcels fell only about 4 percent. As I understand Taber's explanation for this, many exempt properties are difficult to assess because they don't generally appear on the open market. People don't generally buy or sell municipal sewage treatment plants, college academic buildings, or hospital atriums. Changes in the market value of these properties are difficult to gauge because there really isn't a market for these properties. Taber also mentioned that “commercial” properties tend to decrease in value more slowly than residential properties.

It may also be that less attention is given to properly assessing exempt properties simply because the stakes are lower. For taxable parcels, property owners pay real money proportional to the assessment. Taxpayers want assurance that they are paying no more than necessary, while municipal governments receiving taxes want assurance that they are collecting the full amount of money from every taxable parcel. Therefore, tax assessors are under considerable pressure to make assessments of taxable properties that are neither too high nor too low. For exempt properties, these incentives are not present. Inaccurate — apparently even wildly inaccurate — assessments aren't so much noticed.

Summary

There isn't one simple answer as to why Fairview's exempt percent has increased in the last two years. According to my analysis, there are three contributors, in order of decreasing importance:

1. Although Fairview's taxable market value fell by 11.8 percent, Fairview's exempt market value fell by only about 4 percent. The difference means that Fairview's exempt properties were valued $33 million higher than they would have been if they had tracked the taxable decline.
2. Three municipal water and sewer parcels were grossly under-assessed. The assessor made a correction of $23 million.
3. Marist College built student residences, increasing the value of one parcel by $18 million.

These three factors contribute 45%, 31%, and 24%, respectively, to Fairview's increase in exempt percent. Thus, all three factors contribute significantly to Fairview's increase.

Pattern of Under-Assessment of Exempt Properties

The careful reader will have noticed two reasons why Fairview's exempt percent may not be as meaningful as one would like. The first is that gross under-assessment of high-value exempt properties is a bigger issue than previously assumed. Two years ago, I found that the St. Frances Hospital complex had been under-assessed by over $100 million. At the time, I assumed this blunder was a one-time event that would be unlikely to be repeated. Now there's a second instance:  Municipal water and sewer parcels have been under-assessed by over $100 million. Most of this under-assessment will not be corrected until Fairview's 2013 tax bill. This pattern will continue: The recent construction of dormitories at Dutchess Community College — worth tens of millions of dollars — will not be reflected in Fairview's 2013 exempt percent. Taber told me she didn't have time to add the DCC dorms to the current assessment roll, the basis for Fairview's 2013 tax. The omission of such major contributors to exempt value results in underestimation of the true exempt percent.

Unequal Depreciation

The second reason why Fairview's exempt percent may not be so meaningful is that market forces apparently do not affect taxable and exempt properties equally. Nearly half (45 percent) of the increase in Fairview's exempt percent in the last two years is due to the fact that the average exempt property lost only one third as much value as the average taxable property did. At least, that's what the assessment rolls say. Do the assessment rolls accurately reflect exempt property values? There is some reason to wonder. If exempt properties have been overvalued in the last few years, Fairview's corresponding exempt percent is artificially high.

Pace Study's Analysis of Fairview Fire Tax Rate is Flawed

To contact us Click HERE
Pace University's Michaelian Institute for Public Policy and Management released its 189 page Fairview Fire District Consolidation and Efficiency Study final report on June 12. This work, known locally as the Pace Study, examines the feasibility of Fairview consolidating with one or more neighboring fire districts. Pace Study Principal Investigator Michael Genito will present this work at a public meeting this evening, according to the Pace Study website.

In spite of the central importance of tax rates to fiscal analysis, the final report devotes only three sentences and one chart to Fairview's past and future tax rates. Unfortunately, these three sentences, which pertain to average yearly tax rate increase and projection to 2017, are incorrect. Also, the chart contains some incorrect data and an incorrect linear approximation. When I presented my analysis to Genito, he readily concurred that all these statements and the chart are flawed.

Flawed Final Report Passage

The flawed information, on page 175 of the final report PDF (labeled page 167), is as follows:

The Fairview Fire District tax rate has increased on average 4.4% each year from 2008 through 2012. A linear regression of the past five years going forward indicates that by 2017 the tax rate would approximate $6.50 per $1,000 taxable assessed valuation. As such, and all things being equal, the median home would expect to see their fire service property tax to rise from $1,321 per year to $1,502 in 2017.

The above chart, copied from the final report, is confusingly labeled “Tax Rate per $1,000 Assessed Value”, but it is clear from context that this data is really tax rate per thousand dollars of market value, otherwise known as true value tax rate. This is the appropriate kind of tax rate for this analysis.

2008 Fairview Fire Tax Rate Is Incorrect

The key flaw is that the 2008 tax rate in the above chart is incorrect. Fairview's effective 2008 tax rate is $5.16, whereas the above chart shows it to be approximately $4.83. The final report's error in Fairview's 2008 tax rate leads to all the other errors in this passage, as will be explained below.

Genito's Blunder

How did Genito come to make this error? He apparently took an unwarranted shortcut. Instead of dividing Fairview's tax levy by Fairview's market value (the correct method, and the definition of true value tax rate), he took the Poughkeepsie portion of Fairview's tax levy and divided it by the Poughkeepsie portion of Fairview's market value. Under ordinary circumstances, such as between 2009 and 2012, Genito's method would give the same — or nearly the same — result as the correct method. Unfortunately, Fairview's circumstances in 2008 were far from ordinary.

Inequitable Apportionment

Long-time followers of my work know that for every year from 2001 to 2008, apportionment of Fairview's fire tax levy between Poughkeepsie and Hyde Park has been inequitable, resulting in different true value tax rates for the Poughkeepsie and Hyde  Park segments, in violation of New York State Real Property Tax Law. In 2008, the Poughkeepsie segment had a true value tax rate of $4.83 — the number on Genito's chart — but the Hyde Park segment had a whopping true value tax rate of $5.96. All these facts were documented in detail four years ago here, and especially here.

Corrected Chart

In order to fairly graph tax rates, the Y-axis should ordinarily begin at zero dollars. Genito's chart begins the Y-axis at $2, presumably to better visualize small changes in tax rate. The following chart, using the corrected 2008 value, takes this decision further, beginning the Y-axis at $5. This way, small changes in tax rate can be seen even better.


Although the final report's chart includes a straight line approximation to the data and an extrapolation to 2017, such analyses are not appropriate to the corrected data. That's because the corrected data simply does not fit a straight line well enough to justify such an approximation. The corrected data cannot meaningfully be used to linearly extrapolate Fairview fire tax rate out even one year — let alone five years. Once again, Genito concurs with this judgement, which is supported by generally accepted criteria for goodness of fit to a straight line. What this means is that there is simply no basis to support the second and third sentences in the final report's passage, which project 2017 values.

Fairview's Tax Rate Has Been Trending Down Until 2012

We know that taxes are always going up, right? Well, not in Fairview. Examination of the corrected chart between 2008 and 2011 shows that Fairview's yearly tax rate change has been downward twice and upward only once. Even the single upward change from 2010 to 2011 leaves Fairview's tax rate lower than it was in 2008. A standard linear approximation to Fairview's 2008—2011 tax rate would show a decreasing tax rate, not an increasing one.

Fairview's Tax Rate Has Been Approximately Constant — Until 2012

Fairview's downward trend in the 2008—2011 time period is actually quite small. It would probably make more sense to approximate Fairview's tax rate during this time period as a constant value. With such an approximation, Fairview's 2008—2011 tax rate is $5.10 plus or minus 1.2 percent for every year in this interval. The 2011 tax rate is equal to this constant value to within 0.2 percent.

Fairview's 2012 Tax Rate Breaks the Pattern

This pattern of constant tax rate is broken in 2012, where the tax rate soars 12 percent from its historical value of $5.10. It is this break from the pattern that makes it infeasible to predict future tax rates. Another way to look at it is that there is no way one could have predicted Fairview's 2012 tax rate by extrapolation from the previous 4 years.

Average Yearly Tax Rate Increase Is Misleading

What about the first sentence in the final report's passage (average tax rate increase of 4.4 percent per year)? This statistic depends crucially on the 2008 value. With the corrected value, the average tax rate increase is only 2.6 percent per year, not 4.4 percent. Thus the passage's first sentence is incorrect.

Of course, even the corrected sentence is of dubious value. Averages can be deceiving. Why mention a formally correct “average increase” when the tax rate actually decreases as often as it increases. A man drowned in a river whose “average” depth was 6 inches. But he was in the 10-foot part. For the average yearly tax rate increase, essentially all of the tax rate increase during the 5-year period occurred in the last year.

Flawed Passage Is Best Removed

According to Genito, the report's inclusion of the above-quoted passage stemmed from a request by Fairview officials (the “Study Committee”) for a projection based on a 5-year history. Now that Genito has accepted my correction, he and I seem to agree that no future projection can be justified by the data. As I see it, the average tax rate increase is misleading as well, and is best omitted. The only part of the flawed passage that could be of positive value is the corrected chart. This chart is certainly useful for understanding Fairview's fiscal situation, but such an understanding appears to be outside the scope of this report.

Dutchess County Gov't 2013 Tax Rate Likely To Be Highest in Millennium

To contact us Click HERE
Newly elected County Executive Marcus Molinaro is many weeks away from announcing a proposed 2013 budget. After that, the county legislature must deliberate on adjustments before approving a final budget in December. Nevertheless, I can already predict with some confidence that the final 2013 county budget will result in the highest tax rate in this millennium, and the highest tax levy in the history of Dutchess County. In other words, properties will be taxed more steeply by Dutchess County Government than ever before in this millennium. These predictions are based on two tax trends:

1. Dutchess County's taxable market value continues to fall — for the fifth year in a row.
2. Dutchess County Government's tax levy has never significantly fallen, year-to-year.

Taxable Market Value

Dutchess County's taxable market value and tax levy for each year from 2001 through 2012 are derived from the tax rate pamphlets published by the Dutchess County Real Property Tax Service Agency (RPTSA).


For the 2013 tax bill, only an initial estimate of Dutchess County's taxable market value is available (shown in yellow), based on the July 1, 2012, assessment rolls. This value is shown as $30.7 billion on page 23 of a fiscal presentation by the Dutchess County Budget Office. The downward trend in property values since the beginning of the economic meltdown in 2008 is evident in the following chart:


The 2013 taxable market value is shown in yellow to indicate that it is only a preliminary value. The final value, which will not be available until late January 2013, is most likely to be somewhat lower than this value for a variety of reasons explained in detail here.

Note that taxable market value is a net value, including both the value of new construction and improvements, and the current value of existing construction. Dutchess County's taxable market value surged in the first part of the last decade. In 2008 it was 2.5 times larger than in 2001. But from 2008 to 2013 it fell 20 percent. Once again, this 20 percent includes the effects of both the value of new construction and the current value of existing construction. Since there has been some new construction, the value of existing construction must have dropped more than 20 percent since 2008. 

Year to year increases in the taxable market value are shown  below:


When I performed this analysis last year, it appeared as if the property value free-fall was nearly over, since the 2012 taxable market value decrease was the smallest since the meltdown. But the 2013 estimate clearly contradicts that conclusion. Although the 2013 decrease is only an initial estimate, the final decrease will most likely be somewhat greater. Note that all these market values lag tax bills by a year and a half. For example, for tax bills to be paid in February 2013, the corresponding market values are as of July 1, 2011.

Tax Levy

To reason about the 2013 tax levy, let's consider Dutchess County's tax levy history:




The above charts show that Dutchess County's tax levy has increased by a significant amount almost every year. Only in 2002 and 2011 has the tax levy been essentially unchanged from the previous year. Accordingly, I've made the most conservative assumption, that Dutchess County's 2013 tax levy increase will be zero. Based on history, it's unlikely that Dutchess County's 2013 tax levy will be lower than the 2012 levy. The yellow bar indicates that this data point is speculative.

Tax Rate

The 2013 true value tax rate, which is calculated by dividing the assumed 2013 tax levy by the 2013 taxable market value, is $3.38 per thousand dollars of market value: 

The above chart shows that this projected 2013 tax rate for Dutchess County (in yellow) is higher than in any previous year. This projection is almost certainly a low estimate. That's because the final 2013 taxable market value and the 2013 tax levy are both likely to move in a direction to increase this tax rate even further. The tax rate increase chart gives a third reason to conclude that the $3.38 estimate is conservative:

If Dutchess County's 2013 tax rate turns out to be “only” $3.38 — the highest in this millennium — it will still represent the lowest tax rate increase since the meltdown.

Will My Predictions Stand the Test of Time?

What would it take for my tax rate prediction of at least $3.38 or my prediction of the largest tax levy in Dutchess County's history to be wrong? Well, perhaps Molinaro will propose an especially frugal budget with a lower tax levy than last year's. But this won't be easy to do. Former County Executive William Steinhaus was known for shrinking county government and implementing other austerity measures in the years since the meltdown. It's unlikely there's a lot of fat to cut. Meanwhile, the costs of everything are continuing to increase. The effects of the 2008 economic meltdown are still being felt all over, despite allegations of a “recovery”.

How Will We Know Whether My Predictions Are Correct?

The first and most significant indication of whether my predictions are correct will occur next month, when Molinero announces his proposed budget. The second and probably less significant indication will be when the County Legislature approves the budget, possibly with modifications, in December. But the final word will not be out until January, when the 2013 tax rate pamphlet is released by the RPTSA, possibly with slight adjustments as described here. It is these tax rates that are used to generate property tax bills. Ultimately, it is the property tax bills that define how steeply taxpayers are being taxed.

I Hope I'm Wrong

It would be great if my predictions turn out to be wrong. Property taxpayers have been suffering more every year since the meltdown, and of course not just from Dutchess County Government taxes. Only time will tell whether my prediction of Dutchess County's 2013 tax rate of $3.38 turns out to be low-ball.

UPDATE 10/6/2012 — Budget May Exceed 2% Tax Cap

Just a day after publication of this post, it already looks like my caution that my predictions might be wrong may be unwarranted. A front page story in yesterday's Poughkeepsie Journal describes Molinaro's intent to replenish  the County's rainy-day fund. The story quotes Dutchess County Legislative Chairman Robert Rolison as saying that Molinaro's plan would probably require exceeding the State's 2 percent tax cap. Nevertheless, Rolison signaled his intent to support such an increase. As I see it, the stage is already being set to increase the County's 2013 tax levy by at least 2 percent over 2012. Even at just 2 percent, the 2013 tax rate would be $3.45, a 6.1 percent increase over 2012. Such a result would easily confirm my predictions.

Rubin Elected Fairview Fire Commissioner; Second Race Is Tied

To contact us Click HERE

In a remarkable cliff-hanger election in the Fairview Fire District on December 11, Virginia Buechele and Alan Crotty are tied for the three-year fire commissioner position. Your devoted blogger was elected to a five-year commissioner position.

Three-Year Commissioner Slot

Out of 92 ballots cast, each of the two candidates in the three-year contest received 46 votes. Buechele, former leader of the Fairness for Fairview advocacy organization, has been a Fairview fire commissioner for one year. Her opponent, Alan Crotty, was a volunteer Fairview Fire Chief in the early '90s, but has not been involved in Fairview issues in recent years. As in the 2008, 2009, and 2011 elections, this contest was a choice between a relative newcomer aligned with taxpayer advocacy and a veteran aligned with the fire station. Voter turnout was considerably lower than in any previous contested election in the last five years.

Remarkably, the result of the three-year contest was delayed until a few days ago. That's because during the election, the election inspectors sequestered one ballot for a voter not listed on Fairview's voter roll. It wasn't until November 13 that the Dutchess County Board of Elections determined that this voter was indeed a legitimate voter in the Fairview Fire District, mistakenly omitted from the roll. When the election inspectors opened the sequestered ballot at a public meeting on November 13 at 5:30 P.M., it was found to be the tying vote. The tie will be resolved by a special election between the two candidates, presumably in mid-January.

Five-Year Commissioner Slot

It was not determined until November 21 that the five-year commissioner slot would be uncontested, although I did not find out until November 26. I received 74 votes out of the 92 ballots cast. Of the remaining 18 ballots, 14 were blank and 4 went to two write-in candidates.

Fairview Still Won't Have a Full Board

Instead of the normal 5-member board of fire commissioners, Fairview has had only 4 or fewer commissioners for the last year and a half. This deficiency has inevitably meant that less work got done. It also has made decision-making more difficult. For example, the board failed to appoint a commissioner last winter because of a 2-2 deadlock.

There was every reason to expect that this month's election would finally allow the board to achieve full strength. But the impossible-to-anticipate tie means that the board's next meeting on January 8-th will once again be with only 4 commissioners. Presumably, this problem will be resolved expeditiously with the run-off election. Unless, of course, it again results in a tie!

This Blog Will Change

When I take office as Fairview Fire Commissioner on January 8, this blog will change in three ways:

1. I probably won't publish posts critical of Fairview Fire District officials. After all, I'll be one of them. I expect to make my views known from the inside.
2. I probably won't publish posts on factual topics related to the Fairview Fire District, such as Fairview fire tax rates, Fairview exempt percents, and so on. My preference would be for such information to appear on the Fairview Fire District website.
3. The frequency of posts will diminish because I will have less time to conduct property tax investigations.

Southbridge School Committee Agenda - December 11, 2012

To contact us Click HERE

SOUTHBRIDGESCHOOL COMMITTEE MEETING
LOCATION:Robert G. MacKinnon Council Chambers

DATE:Tuesday, December 11, 2012

TIME:7:00 PM
AG E N D A
I. Pledge of Allegiance 
II. Public Input
III. Meeting Called to Order
IV. Roll Call
V. Approval of Minutes     1.Regular School committee—November 13, 2012
VI. Chairwoman’s Announcements
VII. Reports
     1.Representative of the Student Advisory Committee - Ms. FaithMacharia
VIII. School Committee Reports – FY’13     A.Curriculum Subcommittee     B. PolicySubcommittee     C.Budget, Facilities and Transportation Subcommittee     D.Collective Bargaining Subcommittee     E.Communication, Family & Community Engagement Subcommittee
IX. Introductions     A. Ms.Jillian Carroll, Assistant Principal, Southbridge Middle/High School     B. Ms.Kathleen Alicea, Food Service Director
X. Presentations     A.America’s White Table          1.Students of Charlton Street School, Grade 5     B.World-class Instructional Design and Assessment Overview (WIDA)        1. Dr.Sarah Jordan, Director of English Language Learners
XI. Report of the Superintendent     TerryWiggin, Acting Superintendent of Schools     Amy Allen, Director of Curriculum, Instruction & Assessment
XII. Report of Director of Finance & Operations     A. Terry Wiggin, Director of Finance & Operations - Financial Report for Fiscal Year 2013

XIII. School Committee Actions     A. Moved that the Southbridge SchoolCommittee appoint Southbridge Police Officer &
          School Resource Officer Robert Campbell,Southbridge Police Sergeant Jose Dingui, and
          Southbridge Police Detective Robert Salisburyas Attendance Supervisors for the
          Southbridge Public Schoolspursuant to MGL Chapter 76 Section 19.     B. Voteto approve a Middle/High School Science Teacher position.     C. Voteto approve a Middle School LEP Interventionist position.     D. Voteto approve a Middle School Mathematics Interventionist position.     E. Voteto approve a Middle School Special Education Teacher position.     F. Movedthat the Southbridge School Committee approve budget transfers in the amount of
         $1,539,135.04 as shown on theDecember Financial Report, Page 12.
XIV. Unfinished Business        A. ThirdReading and vote to approve updated policy:
          1. Community Use of SchoolFacilities, File: ECG-R
XV. New Business     A. The next regular School Committee meetingwill be held on January 8, 2013, Council
          Chambers.
XVI. Executive Session     A. Voteto go into executive session to:        1.Discuss strategy with respect to collective bargaining for union and nonunion personnel
           or litigation to the extentthat an open meeting may have a detrimental effect on the
           bargaining or litigationposition of the governmental body pursuant to Chapter 30A,
           Section 21, Part 3.     B. RollCall     C. Voteto conclude executive session and return to open session     D. RollCall
XVII. Open SessionA.    Adjournment
Items listed on the agenda are those itemsanticipated by the Chair that may be discussed at the meeting. Not all items onthe agenda may be reached by the Committee, and other items may be added to theagenda at the discretion of the Chair or at the request of the Committee. Inaddition Committee at any time may go into executive session, as authorized bythe Open Meeting Law.

Collective Onanism?

To contact us Click HERE

Ken O’Brien
As those who read The O’Zone are aware, I am not a fan of Master Plans.
To my mind they are nothing more than what the characterAlvy Singer in the movie Annie Hall referred to as “mental masturbation.”
This was brought to mind again today by a letter inthe Southbridge Evening News titled “Add your voice to Southbridge’s futureplans.” It was signed by “SOUTHBRIDGE MASTER PLAN STEERINGAND SUBCOMMITTEES AND THE FRIENDS OF THE MASTER PLAN VOLUNTEERS.” 
In the letter the subcommittees and friends urgedcitizens to participate in a public session at town hall on Wednesday, Dec. 12,at 6:30 p.m. Among the enticements offered for this investment of time are:• Free pizza for all;• Raffle of $25 gift certificates;• Free childcare;• Spanish language interpreters; and• Transportation upon request.
The body of the letter contained two sets of issues,“burning questions” and “creative solutions”, that serve to demonstrate theperspicacious, incisive insight and pragmatic, reality-based, thinking at workin this process.
BURNINGQUESTIONS1. How can we attract new businesses to town andcreate new jobs?2. How can we improve the school district’sreputation?3. How can Southbridge best leverage its ethnic diversityin positive and mutually beneficial
    ways?                                        4. What can we do to make Southbridge a healthierand safer place to live?
CREATIVESOLUTIONS1. Attract outlet stores to our downtown
2. Create an education center for teacher training, help with homework, adulted and lifelong
     learning3. Create a unique festival that capitalizes onmulti-cultural heritage4. Develop a tournament quality multi-sports complex          5. Develop an agriculture & equestrian center6. Expand on Class 4 rapids whitewater raftingpotential
I would like to hear your thoughts on this matter,regardless of my own skepticism.
Is this a worthwhile use for $110,000 in CommunityDevelopment Block Grant funds?
If so, what would you add to either the list of “burningquestions” or “creative solutions?”