23 Eylül 2012 Pazar

Is Krugman an Economist or Just a Partisan Shill?

According to Paul Krugman, the failure of Republicans to pass the American Jobs Act is the reason there is at least a little bit of doubt about Obama's re-election victory this fall. You see, according to Krugman, the economy would be close to booming right now if only, if only, if only.

And how does Krugman know that this piece of legislation would have been the magic bullet? Because some bloggers said it would. Yes, a bunch of Keynesians claim that a law that did not passed was the Answer to the Great Secret, but now we never will know if this act -- THIS act -- would have set the world aright.

This is the kind of stuff that stuns me. I was taught by some very good economists not be be a cheerleader for politicians, and certainly not to be someone who repeats political talking points and pretends that they really are economic truths. At least Alan Blinder is paid to be a partisan shill, and spews his propaganda on Obama's payroll.

At the same time, Ben Bernanke is trying to rev up the inflation engines in hopes that he can give Obama at least a small boost before the election to make it seem as though the economy is better off than it really is. Gee, maybe it is a Princeton thing; academic economists as nothing but shills for politicians, paid and unpaid.

[Update]: In his latest column, Krugman repeats his tired canard that it was Goldstein's "obstructionism" that is responsible for the current downturn. Along the way, he gives some very curious economic analysis:
There were good reasons for these positive assessments. Although you’d never know it from political debate, worldwide experience since the financial crisis struck in 2008 has overwhelmingly confirmed the proposition that fiscal policy “works,” that temporary increases in spending boost employment in a depressed economy (and that spending cuts increase unemployment). The Jobs Act would have been just what the doctor ordered.
 Wow! We were almost there, almost to prosperity! Goldstein destroyed the recovery again! However, Krugman is not through "proving" that Goldstein was the evil force behind this depression. He writes:
The most important consequence of that stonewalling, I’d argue, has been the failure to extend much-needed aid to state and local governments. Lacking that aid, these governments have been forced to lay off hundreds of thousands of schoolteachers and other workers, and those layoffs are a major reason the job numbers have been disappointing. Since bottoming out a year after Mr. Obama took office, private-sector employment has risen by 4.6 million; but government employment, which normally rises more or less in line with population growth, has instead fallen by 571,000. 
 Now, I can see a politician writing this, but an economist really has some explaining to do in order to successfully claim that government jobs will lead a recovery. First, however, Krugman does more of his aggregate tricks when he tries to essentially claim that private sector employment pretty much has recovered.

Here is the problem: the kinds of jobs that disappeared versus the kinds of jobs that have grown in number in the past four years are not the same. It is clear that the private sector is not as robust as it was before the downturn, and the lack of tax revenues being generated is the main reason that employment is lagging in state and local government jobs.

Krugman, however, wants us to believe state and local government jobs are the source of economic growth. That literally is impossible. These are not wealth-creating jobs, for the most part; instead, they consume wealth. The lack of growth in those jobs is proof that the private sector still is not producing enough to fund levels of government to where they were four years ago.

Like most Keynesians, Krugman has the cart before the horse. He wants us to believe that government is a net wealth creator when it is not. Furthermore, he wants us to believe that government can inflate the economy into prosperity, which is an illusion, but a convenient illusion.

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